The Kenyan government implemented a partial lockdown last Friday, enforcing the preordered dusk to dawn curfew. The intention was to encourage social distancing to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. However, as early as 5 P.m (2 hours before the start of the curfew), things went off-script as our Kenyan Law enforcers staged chaotic scenes in towns across Kenya. Police officers used detention tactics that crowded people together potentially exposing many more to the virus and damaging public trust in the government’s strategy to contain the outbreak.
But what went wrong? Many Kenyans leave their workplaces at 5 p.m, and even much later for others. This leaves only two hours for most of them to find their way home. Hence, the government should have anticipated overcrowding of commuters around this time at transit stations, as a consequence of the curfew directive. The Likoni crossing channel was the worst possible place a commuter could be at this Friday. From beatings to teargas, most commuters had to arrive home with broken bones and hopes. Stay or work from home: the propagators of lockdown would say. How realistic will this be in Kenya?
According to an article published by the Institute of Economic Affairs in 2016 titled Economic Burden of the Informal Sector, Informal employment accounts for over 80% of total jobs in Kenya. And this can only mean one thing: employment in Kenya is driven by the informal sector which in most cases means earning no fixed salary. Working from home isn’t an option for Mama mbogas, bodaboda riders or the many informal workers.
Most people in Kenya live from hand to mouth, surviving on what they can make during the day. Asking them to stay at home is asking them to die of hunger. Without underrating the danger Covid-19 carries, the truth is the chance of a person dying from coronavirus is less than 1%. But the chances of getting kicked out to the streets if you don’t pay your rent is 100%.
It won’t be a surprise if many Kenyans violate the curfew orders or a possible lockdown. And it wouldn’t be because of indiscipline as CS Mutahi Kagwe recently claimed. Whereas the damage Covid-19 has already done to big countries has scared most Kenyans, the thought of hunger and being kicked out of their homes due to not paying rent will be a rhythm they may not be willing to dance around. Most of Kenyans who live in the informal settlement do not have disposable income and hence cannot stock-pile food. How then do you sell the idea of a total shutdown to them? If Kenyans decide to take their chances with the Virus, you can understand why.
As unfair as it may sound, the government is to blame for its slow and incautious response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Until a week ago, Kenya was still allowing international flights into the country coupled with the laughable request to self-quarantine. Few days before the first Covid-19 case was confirmed in Kenya, Southern Airlines from China which was the Epicenter of Covid-19 was still flying into the country stopped only due to public outcry. Many weeks after the first case was confirmed, we still had flights from Europe including Italy (the next biggest epicenter after China) coming into the country.
Yet, it is the poor Kenyans who don’t even own passports that have to suffer the consequences of an imported virus. Kenyans are not indiscipline, it is the government that has behaved recklessly. Just recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked the ‘nation’s poor’ for forgiveness, after his 21-day nationwide lockdown stung millions of India’s poor, leaving many hungry and forcing jobless migrant laborers to flee cities and walk hundreds of kilometers to their native villages.
Elsewhere, the US government made payments of up to $1,200 to US taxpayers, in an effort to blunt the financial effects of the coronavirus outbreak. These are the countries that can afford to flirt with the idea of total lockdown.
We need to understand that Kenya’s conditions are unique. We will have to take different steps than other large economies who are following a total lockdown strategy. If we risk a total lockdown, we will struggle to recover from the swift economic paralyzation, political and social chaos that may follow.
